What Consumers Need to Know About Changes in Auto Crime Trends: Interview with Professor David Carter

By Alex Levin

2023-07-27

In today’s interview, we talked with David L. Carter, a Professor in the School of Criminal Justice and Director of the Intelligence Program at Michigan State University, about recent trends in auto crime, particularly since the Covid-19 pandemic. A former police officer in Kansas City, Missouri, Dr. Carter’s areas of expertise include crime control, intelligence, and counterterrorism.

We delve into changes in auto crime trends, including the rise of fraudulent paper license plates, catalytic converter thefts, and the Kia Hyundai TikTok challenge that has led to thousands of vehicle thefts. We also explore what’s behind these trends and what drivers can do to defend themselves.

Alex Levin: The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) reported a 59% increase in vehicle thefts this year, and CoPilot reports that 750,000 vehicles are stolen each year. Why have vehicle thefts increased, and have any other types of auto crimes increased?

Dr. David Carter: Since the pandemic all crimes have increased including motor vehicle theft. The broad characterization of “social stressors” during the pandemic is often attributed to a factor associated with crime during this time.

During the pandemic law enforcement became very reactive – including stopping significantly fewer vehicles for traffic stops during this time. Less proactive police work such as this leads to more thefts because thieves “know they can get away with it”. (There was also a significant increase of traffic accidents at the same time.)

Police staffing levels are significantly low across the country, with many departments requiring officers to cancel days off and work overtime just to handle calls for service. In these instances, there is little time for proactive crime prevention and auto theft investigations came close to a halt in many cities. Auto thieves tend to be repeat offenders – if they feel like they won’t be arrested, the thefts will increase.

Social media posts about how to steal vehicles, particularly Hyundai and Kia vehicles, have likely played a role in the increased thefts, but it is hard to quantify.

AL: Did the Covid pandemic and economic downturn play any role? If so, why, and have auto crimes decreased with the pandemic?

DC: The correlation between the pandemic and crime is still being studied, but it seems to be less about economic factors and more about changes in the social contract between many people and their communities. That is, reactions to conflict and constraint (such as restrictive public health orders) seems to have had a triggering effect for more people to commit crime – this certainly appears to be true with violent crime – crimes against property, including auto theft, have not been studied as much yet.

Social trends are hard to reverse; social trends involving crime are even harder to reverse when there is a policing shortage.

AL: Has auto crime increased overall?

DC: Auto thefts have increased overall. I haven’t seen any data on “thefts from autos” (i.e., auto burglaries).

One area where there is a documented increase of “thefts from autos” is the increase of firearms being stolen from cars. This is most likely a correlation to the increased numbers of states allowing firearms to be carried without requiring any type of permit – more people appear to be carrying guns and leaving them in their cars.

AL: What are the most common types of auto theft, and how can individuals prevent them?

DC:

• They appear to be largely crimes of opportunity.
• Don’t leave a vehicle running or the keys/fob in it, even for just a minute or two.
• Lock vehicles – anything that may slow down a thief will decrease the probability of it being stolen.
• If the vehicle is equipped with a tracking GPS, such as OnStar, activate it.
• If it is an older vehicle not equipped with an alarm, consider having an alarm installed – thieves and burglars do not like noise.
• Park in well-lit areas, even better if there is a lot of foot traffic – this will dissuade thieves.
• Physical auto theft prevention devices – such as “The Club” are amazingly effective – even more effective than an alarm – and relatively inexpensive.

AL: How has vehicle crime evolved over the years? Are there any new types of vehicle crime drivers should be aware of?

DC: Anecdotally, there appears to be an increase in “joyriders” – thieves, most often young men, who steal a vehicle for the “thrill and fun” rather than attempting to make money off the vehicle or use it in another crime.

We know vehicles are stolen to facilitate crimes, such as transporting contraband or used in a gang drive by shooting, we just don’t know the extent.

AL: Have there been any changes to the patterns or demographics of auto crime during the pandemic?

DC: There does not appear to be any changes in the demographics of vehicle thieves, there is limited data, but it suggests there are more people, again mostly young males, who are stealing cars with repeat offenders stealing more cars.

AL: How has the pandemic affected the availability of resources to combat auto crime?

DC: The numbers of police officers have been on the decline for several years, but during the pandemic that decline in officers accelerated. With growing levels of violent crime in many communities, investigating and preventing auto theft is simply a low priority crime.

As a low priority, fewer personnel are assigned to work auto theft cases, unless there is evidence of a criminal enterprise operating an auto theft ring. Even this, however, will be lower priority than violent crime.

AL: How do carjackings differ from other types of auto theft, and what precautions should individuals take to avoid being a victim?

DC: Auto theft is a “crime against property” like any other theft, such as a bicycle theft, the vehicle just costs more.

A carjacking is a robbery and thus a “crime against a person”, making it significantly more serious and dangerous.

Keeping doors locked and windows closed. Being aware of your surroundings to detect a possible threat. When in traffic have situational awareness for an “escape route” – that is how can you drive away. If confronted continuously honk the horn and do not open doors or windows.

Even if the carjacker/robber has a handgun, in most cases you are still reasonably well protected in the vehicle – escape by driving away is always the best alternative.

AL: How have police departments had to adapt to changes in auto crime trends? How are government agencies responding?

DC: As noted earlier, in many cities, auto theft remains a lower priority crime because of low staffing and the need to address violent crime. Not a whole lot has changed, even with the increased numbers of thefts.

Unlike violent crime where a person is killed or injured, auto theft can be resolved through insurance. This is somewhat of an unstated truth.

AL: Should concerned car owners track their cars’ locations, e.g., with GPS trackers or AirTags? If so, are there any products/methods you recommend?

Yes, this is good practice. Probably the best is an installed system by the manufacturer if it is available. Any type of GPS tracker that has good reviews should also work (I avoid naming products.)

AL: Are there more cars with fraudulent paper license plates? If so, why, and what are the implications for drivers and law enforcement?

DC: I am not sure about fraudulent paper license plates – even if they exist, they are likely a low priority for the police to examine and stop the car. This is becoming increasingly the case for a reason unrelated to auto theft.

Following the 2020 social justice protests across the U.S. in response to George Floyd’s death, police departments and the criminal justice system were vocally criticized for having institutionalized racism – and that people of color were always more likely to be stopped by the police than white people. – racial profiling.

Data showed in multiple cities that people of color were significantly more likely to be stopped for minor equipment violations and licensing irregularities as compared to white people. As a result, to avoid racial profiling concerns, increasing numbers of police departments established a policy of not stopping cars for equipment violations or licensing/registration violations.

AL: Has there been an increase in catalytic converter thefts? If so, why? How is law enforcement responding, and is there anything drivers should do to protect themselves?

DC: There has been a huge increase in these thefts. Again, a low priority for law enforcement as compared to violent crime.

The most effective tool to stop catalytic converter thefts is having a state law, with criminal penalties and hefty fines to recycling centers requiring documentation, including drivers’ license and photos of the sellers. Having a robust accountability system with the recycling centers being liable for undocumented transactions cut down on thefts because the thieves will have few places to sell them.

AL: What is the TikTok auto theft challenge? Is it still happening, and what can car owners do?

DC: I’m not a Tik Toker and have not paid much attention to it!

AL: What advice do you have for concerned drivers?

DC: Use common sense safety and prevention actions and assume you can be a victim of theft, particularly if your vehicle is not kept in a garage.

AL: Are there any known criminal organizations involved in auto theft at scale in the U.S.?

DC: Yes, there are criminal enterprises involved in auto theft, particularly high-end vehicles. And there will always be criminal enterprises willing to traffic in stolen vehicles they can strip for parts – this is typically more lucrative than selling the complete vehicle and easier/safer to do. Since these cases are criminal enterprises, they are more serious – and since they will typically involve moving the vehicle or parts across transit state lines, the FBI will investigate them (as a general rule).

AL: How does the location of a vehicle affect its risk of being stolen, and what steps can individuals take to prevent theft in high-risk areas?

DC: In some way like any crime:

• A dark/dimly lit area with little foot traffic increases the probability of theft.
• An area of a community that has high crime rates for assaults, burglaries and robberies will also have a higher probability of auto theft.
• Try to avoid these areas/conditions.

Based in Pennsylvania, Alex Levin is an automotive writer who has worked with companies such as Kia and CarMax.
Image source - https://cj.msu.edu/directory/carter-david.html